Author: Tang, Biao; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Li, Qian; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni; Wu, Jianhong
Title: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: thu861hj_34
Snippet: Due to variation in the control strategies with the time and the improvement of detection of the new coronavirus cases, we updated our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV. By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates we refit our proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th , 2020 and re-estimated the daily reproduction number, which implies the evolving transmission risk. We obser.....
Document: Due to variation in the control strategies with the time and the improvement of detection of the new coronavirus cases, we updated our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV. By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates we refit our proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th , 2020 and re-estimated the daily reproduction number, which implies the evolving transmission risk. We observed that the effective daily reproduction ratio has already fallen below 1, therefore while the epidemics will continue to grow, the epidemic will peak soon.
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