Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Paul, Mathilde; Tavornpanich, Saraya; Abrial, David; Gasqui, Patrick; Charras-Garrido, Myriam; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius; Roger, Francois; Ducrot, Christian

The H5N1 virus may now be well established in different Southeast Asian countries. Despite the implementation of control measures, it is probable that these countries will continue to face new outbreaks in poultry. The conditions under which the virus maintains itself in the environment are not well known. It is difficult to prevent virus re-emergence in possible local persistence spots, or the periodic reintroduction of the virus [25] . Controlling the disease within the poultry population is a critical issue for both the public health and agricultural economic systems. The restructuring of poultry production from open-housed to closed systems has started in Thailand but the process will take time and considerable cooperative effort. Therefore, to limit the number and size of future outbreaks in the poultry population, the focus of efforts should be on controlling the movement of both live poultry and avian products.