A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia

Eifan, Saleh A.; Nour, Islam; Hanif, Atif; Zamzam, Abdelrahman M.M.; AlJohani, Sameera Mohammed

Results of the current Real Time Bayesian SIR model suggest a subcritical MERS-CoV epidemic in Saudi Arabia, as estimated by the reproductive number to be less than one. Subsequently, a self-sustaining epidemic cannot be established in humans, which would agree with the findings of other studies (Breban et al., 2013; Poletto et al., 2014) . The potential outbreak of MERS-CoV in the period between March to May 2014 could be interpreted by the paucity of data about the index cases and subsequent waves of infections. Moreover, other possibilities must be included such as as seasonal variations and their correlation with zoonotic origins like infections in camels (Sharif-Yakan and Kanj, 2014). However, the low rate of daily, sporadic MERS cases diminished the possibility of zoonotic infection and indicated a more likelihood of interhuman transmissibility that is plausible with data reported elsewhere (Breban et al., 2013) . The limited human-to-human transmission has been reported due to the variations of MERS-CoV receptors in the human upper and lower respiratory tract (Raj et al., 2014a,b) . Furthermore, a potentially low respiratory disease could evolve in patients lacking considerable co-morbidities (Raj et al., 2014a,b) .