Author: Chu, Yanhui; Wu, Zhenyu; Ji, Jiayi; Sun, Jingyi; Sun, Xiaoyu; Qin, Guoyou; Qin, Jingning; Xiao, Zheng; Ren, Jian; Qin, Di; Zheng, Xueying; Wang, Xi-Ling
Title: Effects of school breaks on influenza-like illness incidence in a temperate Chinese region: an ecological study from 2008 to 2015 Document date: 2017_3_6
ID: r7a0orh7_8
Snippet: In order to control the effects of unmeasured confounders of long-term and seasonal trends, we built a Serfling-specified Poisson regression model to assess the effect of winter breaks. A vector of dummy variables for each year was considered and sinusoidal terms of weeks were added in the Poisson model to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends, respectively. As weekly adjacent ILI visits were temporally correlated, we further added an autocorr.....
Document: In order to control the effects of unmeasured confounders of long-term and seasonal trends, we built a Serfling-specified Poisson regression model to assess the effect of winter breaks. A vector of dummy variables for each year was considered and sinusoidal terms of weeks were added in the Poisson model to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends, respectively. As weekly adjacent ILI visits were temporally correlated, we further added an autocorrelated regression term to adjust for autocorrelation in the Poisson model. 13 Details of the model can be found in online supplementary appendix and tables S1-S2. Model fitting was evaluated by pseudo R 2 values. IRRs of during/after to before winter breaks were used to evaluate the change of ILI incidence before, during and after winter breaks in each age group. IRRs of during/after to before winter breaks smaller than 1 indicated that ILI visits during/after winter breaks were lower than those before winter breaks. We presented the estimates as weekly IRRs, which was calculated by dividing the weekly ILI incidence during/after winter breaks to an average of ILI incidence 2 weeks before winter breaks. Data analyses were conducted in R V.3.2.3 using package nlme. 14
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