Global patterns in coronavirus diversity

Anthony, Simon J.; Johnson, Christine K.; Greig, Denise J.; Kramer, Sarah; Che, Xiaoyu; Wells, Heather; Hicks, Allison L.; Joly, Damien O.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William; Lipkin, W. I.; Morse, Stephen S.; Mazet, Jonna A. K.; Goldstein, Tracey

In order to refine future surveillance efforts to find the undiscovered diversity of CoVs in bats, we evaluated the factors predicting CoV positivity. For each region, the best model included specimen type, bat family (or in the case of Latin America, subfamily), season, and animal-human interface (Table 2) . Season was not included in the top model for Latin America, but the model with the season included was within two AIC (delta AIC ¼ 1.06) and therefore considered to have as much support as the top model (Burnham and Anderson 2002) . Specimen type was highly associated with CoV positivity, and samples containing feces or fecal swabs were significantly more likely to test positive than other specimen types in all regions. Bat family was important in Asia and Africa. Season was also significant, with samples collected during the dry season more likely to test positive in Africa and Asia than those collected during the wet season (albeit with low odds ratios). Age class appears to be important, as sub-adults were more likely to test positive than adults in Africa and Asia. Sex was not related to CoV positivity in Asia or Latin America while males were slightly more likely to be CoV positive in Africa (OR ¼ 1.5, 1.2-1.9 CI, P < 0.001). Broad categories of animal-human interfaces were significantly associated with CoV positivity among bats in all three regions: in Africa and Latin America, bats sampled at the animal use interface category were more likely to be positive, and in Asia, bats sampled at the animal use and human activities interfaces were more likely to be positive than those sampled at other interfaces. The significance of the animal interface in all three regions suggests that practices around animal use may be important for disease transmission.