Author: Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Gimma, Amy; Bosse, Nikos I; Jarvis, Christopher I; Russell, Timothy W; Munday, James D; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Funk, Sebastian; Eggo, Rosalind M
Title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_28
ID: ueb7mjnv_32
Snippet: In scenarios in which the reproduction number was 2·5, 15% of transmission occurred before symptom onset, and there was a short delay to isolation, at least 80% of infected contacts needed to be traced and isolated to give a probability of control of 90% or more. This scenario echoes other suggestions that highly effective contact tracing will be necessary to control outbreaks in other countries. 16 In scenarios in which the delay from onset to .....
Document: In scenarios in which the reproduction number was 2·5, 15% of transmission occurred before symptom onset, and there was a short delay to isolation, at least 80% of infected contacts needed to be traced and isolated to give a probability of control of 90% or more. This scenario echoes other suggestions that highly effective contact tracing will be necessary to control outbreaks in other countries. 16 In scenarios in which the delay from onset to isolation was long, similar to the delays in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan, the same contact tracing success of 80% achieved a probability of containing an outbreak of less than 40%. Higher presymptomatic transmission decreases the probability that the outbreaks were controlled, under all reproduction numbers and isolation delay distributions tested.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- outbreak control and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74
- outbreak control and reproduction number scenario: 1, 2, 3, 4
- outbreak control probability and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3
- outbreak early phase and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- outbreak early phase and short delay: 1, 2
- outbreak early phase and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- outbreak early phase and Wuhan outbreak early phase: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- presymptomatic transmission and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- presymptomatic transmission and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29
- presymptomatic transmission and symptom onset occur: 1, 2
- reproduction number and short delay: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- reproduction number and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76
- reproduction number and symptom onset occur: 1, 2
- reproduction number and Wuhan outbreak early phase: 1
- reproduction number scenario and short delay: 1
- reproduction number scenario and symptom onset: 1
- short delay and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- short delay and Wuhan outbreak early phase: 1
- symptom onset and Wuhan outbreak early phase: 1, 2
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date