Author: Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Gimma, Amy; Bosse, Nikos I; Jarvis, Christopher I; Russell, Timothy W; Munday, James D; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Funk, Sebastian; Eggo, Rosalind M
Title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_28
ID: ueb7mjnv_12
Snippet: The effectiveness of isolation of cases and contacts to control outbreaks of COVID-19 depends on the precise characteristics of transmission, which remain unclear at the present time. Using the current best understanding, around 80% of symptomatic contacts must be traced and isolated to control over 80% of outbreaks in the model. Future research on the transmission characteristics could improve precision on control estimates. Each newly infected .....
Document: The effectiveness of isolation of cases and contacts to control outbreaks of COVID-19 depends on the precise characteristics of transmission, which remain unclear at the present time. Using the current best understanding, around 80% of symptomatic contacts must be traced and isolated to control over 80% of outbreaks in the model. Future research on the transmission characteristics could improve precision on control estimates. Each newly infected case was identified through contact tracing with probability Ï. Secondary cases that had been traced were isolated immediately on becoming symptomatic. Cases that were missed by contact tracing (probability 1-Ï) were isolated when they became symptomatic, with a delay drawn from the onset-toisolation distribution.
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