Author: Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Gimma, Amy; Bosse, Nikos I; Jarvis, Christopher I; Russell, Timothy W; Munday, James D; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Funk, Sebastian; Eggo, Rosalind M
Title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_28
ID: ueb7mjnv_10
Snippet: We use a mathematical model to assess the feasibility of contact tracing and case isolation to control outbreaks of COVID-19. We used disease transmission characteristics specific to the pathogen and give the best available evidence if contact tracing and isolation can achieve control of outbreaks. We simulated new outbreaks starting from 5, 20, or 40 introduced cases. Contact tracing and isolation might not contain outbreaks of COVID-19 unless v.....
Document: We use a mathematical model to assess the feasibility of contact tracing and case isolation to control outbreaks of COVID-19. We used disease transmission characteristics specific to the pathogen and give the best available evidence if contact tracing and isolation can achieve control of outbreaks. We simulated new outbreaks starting from 5, 20, or 40 introduced cases. Contact tracing and isolation might not contain outbreaks of COVID-19 unless very high levels of contact tracing are achieved. Even in this case, if there is subclinical transmission, or a high fraction of transmission before onset of symptoms, this strategy might not achieve control within 3 months.
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