Selected article for: "abrupt start and additional testing"
Author: Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann; Julian Heidecke; Hridya Vinod Varma; Noemi Castelletti; Jan H Meinke; Stefan Krieg; Thomas Lippert
Title: A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: 0xymzkzn_4
    Snippet: • A close-to-total shutdown of any economic and social activities for a period of 5 weeks from now will probably only cause a shift in one of the described scenario. While the advantage of a temporary shutdown is buying time (the expected peak being mid July 2020 with 1.3 Mio identified cases at the day of the peak), which might be helpful if the health care systems can be prepared to be in a better position to deal with the disease, such a sce.....
    Document: • A close-to-total shutdown of any economic and social activities for a period of 5 weeks from now will probably only cause a shift in one of the described scenario. While the advantage of a temporary shutdown is buying time (the expected peak being mid July 2020 with 1.3 Mio identified cases at the day of the peak), which might be helpful if the health care systems can be prepared to be in a better position to deal with the disease, such a scenario would still lead to about 570.000 fatalities in total, as the model predicts. If accompanied by increased test activity this scenario leads to similar fatality numbers (258,000) and even higher peak numbers of known infected individuals (22.6 Mio) as compared to a scenario with increased testing alone as additional measure. The main effect of a shutdown with abrupt start and end would be delaying the peak of known active cases, while at the same time making it narrower and higher.

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