Author: Fook Hou Lee
Title: A Heuristic Model for Spreading of COVID 19 in Singapore Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: 6l7igbmx_1
Snippet: This paper presents a heuristic epidemic spreading model, which can be readily implemented, modified, up-scaled and generalised personal computer spreadsheet. The model based on two parameters, namely detection efficiency and daily infectivity. The model formulation is first discussed. Examples are then presented to verify and calibrate the parameters, with respect to COVID 19. Some findings from the simulation, relevant to COVID 19, particularly.....
Document: This paper presents a heuristic epidemic spreading model, which can be readily implemented, modified, up-scaled and generalised personal computer spreadsheet. The model based on two parameters, namely detection efficiency and daily infectivity. The model formulation is first discussed. Examples are then presented to verify and calibrate the parameters, with respect to COVID 19. Some findings from the simulation, relevant to COVID 19, particularly for the Singapore context, are highlighted. Finally, an extension of the model is also made to include the effects of herd immunity and asymptomatic period.
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