Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_196
Snippet: The effect of different probabilities of voluntary withdrawal to the home of symptomatic adults and children is on the model outcome is presented in Table A5 . Lower rates of voluntary withdrawal lead to higher attack rates in all three models. Voluntary withdrawal from work or school has a more pronounced effect in the Albany model, as a significant proportion of children in Madang still transmit through daytime contacts in neighbourhood hubs. T.....
Document: The effect of different probabilities of voluntary withdrawal to the home of symptomatic adults and children is on the model outcome is presented in Table A5 . Lower rates of voluntary withdrawal lead to higher attack rates in all three models. Voluntary withdrawal from work or school has a more pronounced effect in the Albany model, as a significant proportion of children in Madang still transmit through daytime contacts in neighbourhood hubs. The effects of variation of the timing of intervention initiation are presented in Table A6 . In the school closure scenario, delayed response had the most severe impact on the attack rates in Albany, whereas for the Madang models the changes in attack rate were marginal. This is again due to a large fraction of children not attending school and the existence of neighbourhood hubs. Similarly, in the rigorous contact reduction scenario the effect of delayed response on attack rate was more pronounced in the Albany model, due to lower effectiveness of interventions in a PNG setting.'
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