New threat: 2019 novel Coronavirus infection and infection control perspective in Turkey

Kilic, Aysegul Ulu; Kara, Fatih; Alp, Emine; Doganay, Mehmet

At the end of January 2020, 2019-nCoV declared as global health emergency by the World Health Organization. The researchers tried to estimate the size of the epidemic in Wuhan and predict the risk for local and global dimensions. The mean incubation period was found to be 5.2 days (4.1 to 7), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). The researchers calculated the number of infected patients as 75.800 for January 2020 (about 10 times that reported) using travel data. They found doubling time as 6.4 days and R 0 as 2.68. The researchers were assumed that the outbreak would peak in April and if necessary measures are taken and the growth rate of the epidemics slows down, the transmission of the virus can be reduced by 25%. Thus, the total number of cases can be decreased by 50%. The fatality rate of disease was reported as 2% by early February [10] . Non-survivors that have been reported so far are generally older or have concomitant systemic disease. Systemic symptoms, lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia were found more common and radiological involvement was more severe among people over 60. High CRP and LDH levels were also reported more frequently among older patients. A study found that the median age of patients died as 75 (48-89). On the other hand, children were less susceptible to viruses or had a mild infection as compared with adults [7, 11] . Studies calculated a basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of the disease to foresee how far the virus spread. A study of 425 patients found a basic reproduction number as 2.2% (95% CI, 1,4 to 3.9) [12] . The WHO (World Health Organization) estimated that each individual infected with 2019-nCoV transmitted the virus to an average of 1.4 to 2.5 others for the earlier phase of the outbreak. That means 2019-nCoV less contagious than SARS, which had an R 0 of 3, but more contagious than seasonal flu.