Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_10
Snippet: To address this modelling "gap", an individual-based disease transmission model of pandemic influenza has been developed for PNG, based on the methods used previously to develop a pandemic influenza model of Albany, Western Australia [10, 15, 16] . The chosen location of Madang, a town of approximately 35,000 on the northern coast of New Guinea has, along with all of PNG, different demographics and individual-to-individual contact patterns compar.....
Document: To address this modelling "gap", an individual-based disease transmission model of pandemic influenza has been developed for PNG, based on the methods used previously to develop a pandemic influenza model of Albany, Western Australia [10, 15, 16] . The chosen location of Madang, a town of approximately 35,000 on the northern coast of New Guinea has, along with all of PNG, different demographics and individual-to-individual contact patterns compared to those in developed countries. The model was used to describe the spread of a novel influenza strain after introduction into the community. The resulting illness attack rate was determined together with data indicating where person-to-person transmission occurred. An unmitigated outbreak and two outbreaks with PNG-feasible intervention strategies activated were simulated and the results compared to those obtained using the Albany, Australia model.
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