Selected article for: "local epidemic progress and subsequent variation"
Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country
  • Document date: 2013_3_26
    • ID: y01w04lc_201
    Snippet: After the beginning of a sustained local epidemic, any subsequent variation in the amount of seeding has very little effect on the progress of the local epidemic, as the number of imported cases is much smaller than those generated by the local epidemic Preliminary analyses with the present model showed that, for the low transmissibility scenario, even if the seeding rate is increased to 5 infections per day, after 7 days the number of infections.....
    Document: After the beginning of a sustained local epidemic, any subsequent variation in the amount of seeding has very little effect on the progress of the local epidemic, as the number of imported cases is much smaller than those generated by the local epidemic Preliminary analyses with the present model showed that, for the low transmissibility scenario, even if the seeding rate is increased to 5 infections per day, after 7 days the number of infections generated from the self-sustained local epidemic is twice the number of imported infections, and by 14 days local infections outnumber imported infections by a factor of 8.' Table 2 ?

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