Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

Previous simulation studies [20, 43, 44] show that rigorous social distancing interventions involving school closure coupled to contact reductions in other locations may be highly effective in reducing the attack rate within a developed country setting. Comparing the effectiveness of rigorous social distancing between the Albany and Madang models, an ~83% reduction (from 31.7% to 5.4%) reduction may be achieved in Albany whereas a smaller ~62.7% reduction (from 46.6%% to 17.4%), is achieved in the Madang model; see Table 1 . In the Madangnnh model a ~69.4% reduction in the attack rate (40.8% to 12.5%) can be achieved by this rigorous social distancing intervention. These results suggest that both social distancing strategies are much less effective in a PNG setting compared to what might be achieved in a developed country. Figure 2 also reveals this clear trend, with peak case incidence and the area under the curves (the attack rate) being higher in both Madang models compared to the Albany model.