Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

While pharmaceutical-based interventions were not considered due to cost and delivery issues in a low-income country setting, consideration may need to be given to some form of antiviral agent use, given the poor performance of purely social distancing interventions suggested by this study. This raises issues regarding how to optimise antiviral delivery and who would fund and manage such a program. If neuraminidase inhibitor antivirals were to be considered, care would need to be taken to understand how reduced efficacy compared to that provided by limited studies [31] [32] [33] might impact on the overall effectiveness and cost effectiveness of antiviral-based strategies. This antiviral efficacy issue is discussed in [34] and the consequences of lower efficacy in [35] .