Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

As with all modelling studies obtaining high-quality field data with which to "populate" models is crucial and accessing such data in countries such as PNG is a challenge. These results and those from future research will permit better pandemic planning and allow intervention strategies to be tailored to the specific demographics and resource constraints found in developing countries. [1] and the possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic virus strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. South-East Asia is especially at risk given the continuing presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in wild bird populations in close proximity to domestic poultry and humans. Indonesia is a major hotspot for continuing H5N1 infection [2] . Given the high mortality rates seen with human cases of H5N1 and the possibility that this strain may re-assort or mutate to become readily transmissible between humans, as has been shown using a ferret model under laboratory conditions [3] , research has been conducted to inform the development of appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. A key goal of this effort is to determine the effectiveness of interventions, in terms of their ability to reduce infection and consequential mortality rates.