Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_165
Snippet: The school closure intervention in the Madang model is found to be approximately 5 times less effective compared to that of the Albany model. Simulation results suggest a 9.4% reduction (46.6% to 42.2%) in the illness attack rate can be achieved in Madang due to school closure whereas a 48.6% reduction (31.7% to 16.3%) can be achieved in Albany (see Table 1 ). For the Madang-nnh (no neighbourhood hub) model, school closure is approximately 3.5 ti.....
Document: The school closure intervention in the Madang model is found to be approximately 5 times less effective compared to that of the Albany model. Simulation results suggest a 9.4% reduction (46.6% to 42.2%) in the illness attack rate can be achieved in Madang due to school closure whereas a 48.6% reduction (31.7% to 16.3%) can be achieved in Albany (see Table 1 ). For the Madang-nnh (no neighbourhood hub) model, school closure is approximately 3.5 times less effective compared to the Albany model. These results suggest that both social distancing strategies are much less effective in a PNG setting compared to what might be achieved in a developed country. Figure 2 also reveals this clear trend, with peak case incidence and the area under the curves (the attack rate) being higher in both Madang models compared to the Albany model.
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