Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

The school closure intervention in the Madang model is found to be approximately 5 times less effective compared to that of the Albany model. Simulation results suggest a 9.4% reduction (46.6% to 42.2%) in the illness attack rate can be achieved in Madang due to school closure whereas a 48.6% reduction (31.7% to 16.3%) can be achieved in Albany (see Table 1 ). For the Madang-nnh (no neighbourhood hub) model, school closure is approximately 3.5 times less effective compared to the Albany model. workplaces and the wider community (including neighbourhood hubs) than in Albany, highlighting the poorer efficacy of this intervention strategy in a PNG setting. The Madang-nnh model also results in higher household and workplace transmission than the Albany model. Note that while there is a significantly higher proportion of under 17 year old children in Madang (40%) compared to Albany (28%), our field survey indicates that 50% of school age children in Madang do not attend school, hence school closure is less effective in disrupting the transmission chain (i.e., household 1-to-school-to-household 2) compared to Australia. This feature is also present in the rigorous social distancing intervention.