Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

While care was taken to obtain detailed data used to populate the Madang and Albany models, government data was found to be more limited in PNG. While a field data collection exercise was conducted in Madang to fill in missing data and make the models as directly comparable as possible, there is still scope for conducting further data collection. The lack of similar low-income modelling studies prevents comparison with related studies, and suggests that this is an area requiring further attention. Research studies expanding on that reported here suggest themselves: the construction and use of a number of additional PNG models capturing different population structures, such as rural villages and island communities; and the determination of health outcomes following a moderately severe influenza pandemic, taking into account co-morbidities with extant diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis, diseases common to many low-income countries.