Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_350_1
Snippet: dividuals, additional contacts gives increased transmission and results in higher final attack rates. The table gives the final attack rate and their corresponding 95% CI (presented in parentheses, shaded rows) for the Madang model for the no intervention, school closure, and rigorous social distancing scenarios, under the assumption that the neighbourhood group size is 10, 20 or 30 individuals. Compliance with home isolation of school children f.....
Document: dividuals, additional contacts gives increased transmission and results in higher final attack rates. The table gives the final attack rate and their corresponding 95% CI (presented in parentheses, shaded rows) for the Madang model for the no intervention, school closure, and rigorous social distancing scenarios, under the assumption that the neighbourhood group size is 10, 20 or 30 individuals. Compliance with home isolation of school children following school closure intervention has been examined and compliance reduction from 100% to 50% considered. Effects of reduced compliances on the illness attack rates and their corresponding 95% CI (in parentheses, shaded rows) are presented in Table A4 . For the purely school closure intervention, the illness attack rate increases by ~3% in Albany as reduced isolation permits additional child-to-child contact. In the Madang models, reduced compliance with home isolation during the period of school closure has minimal effect on the attack rate. This is due to ~50% school age children not attending school. In all three models, reduced compliance has minimal effect if additional rigorous social distancing interventions are also applied. Alternative intervention activation timing assumptions for school closure, workforce reduction and community contact reduction are examined and two different settings are considered. Effects of these alternative assumptions on the illness attack rates and their corresponding 95% CI (in parentheses, shaded rows) are presented. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
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