Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_38
Snippet: Previous simulation studies [10, 28, 29] show that rigorous social distancing interventions involving school closure coupled to contact reductions in other locations may be highly effective in reducing the attack rate. Comparing the effectiveness of rigorous social distancing between the Albany and the Madang models, an ~83% reduction (from 31.7% to 5.4%) reduction may be achieved in Albany whereas a smaller ~62.7% reduction (from 46.6%% to 17.4%.....
Document: Previous simulation studies [10, 28, 29] show that rigorous social distancing interventions involving school closure coupled to contact reductions in other locations may be highly effective in reducing the attack rate. Comparing the effectiveness of rigorous social distancing between the Albany and the Madang models, an ~83% reduction (from 31.7% to 5.4%) reduction may be achieved in Albany whereas a smaller ~62.7% reduction (from 46.6%% to 17.4%), is achieved in the Madang model; see Table 1 . In the no-hub Madang-nnh model a ~69.4% reduction in the attack rate (40.8% to 12.5%) can be achieved by this rigorous social distancing intervention. These results suggest that both social distancing strategies are much less effective in a PNG setting compared to what might be achieved in a developed country. Figure 2 also reveals this clear trend, with peak case incidence and the area under the curves (the cumulative attack rate) being higher in both Madang models compared to the Albany model.
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