Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_52
Snippet: It is assumed that infectious transmission may occur when an infectious and susceptible individual came into contact during a simulation cycle. Following each contact a new infection state for the susceptible individual (either to remain susceptible or to become infected) will be randomly selected via a Bernoulli trial. Once infected, an individual progressed through a series of infection states according to a fixed timeline, taking then from a s.....
Document: It is assumed that infectious transmission may occur when an infectious and susceptible individual came into contact during a simulation cycle. Following each contact a new infection state for the susceptible individual (either to remain susceptible or to become infected) will be randomly selected via a Bernoulli trial. Once infected, an individual progressed through a series of infection states according to a fixed timeline, taking then from a susceptible state, to an exposed state, to an infectious state and thence to an immune, recovered state. 5 The probability that an infectious individual would infect a susceptible individual was calculated using the following transmission function, which takes into account the disease infectivity of the infectious individual Ii and the susceptibility of susceptible individual Is , at the time of contact.
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