Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_96
Snippet: One new infection per day was introduced into the population during the whole period of the simulations, and randomly allocated to a household. This seeding assumption of 1 case per day was chosen to reliably begin a local epidemic in every stochastic simulation. For the transmission characteristics described above, analysis shows that seeding at this rate for 7 days results in a sustained epidemic in >97% of the simulation runs and 100% with two.....
Document: One new infection per day was introduced into the population during the whole period of the simulations, and randomly allocated to a household. This seeding assumption of 1 case per day was chosen to reliably begin a local epidemic in every stochastic simulation. For the transmission characteristics described above, analysis shows that seeding at this rate for 7 days results in a sustained epidemic in >97% of the simulation runs and 100% with two weeks of seeding, with higher percentages for the higher transmissibility scenarios. Seeding at this rate is continued throughout the simulation in order to capture the case where an epidemic may be initially suppressed by a rigorous intervention strategy, but may subsequently break out if intervention measures are relaxed.
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