Author: Meng Wang; Jingtao Qi
Title: A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China Document date: 2020_3_10
ID: 6tnkz6hh_7
Snippet: where T 2 is a transition time of R, and R o = R(t = 0), being a constant. R o is related to I o by R o = γI o /Ï 1 . But in principle, both I o and R o are just arbitrary constants because we choose time zero randomly. We use (3) and (4) to fit epidemic curves. For various reasons, reported numbers of cumulative confirmed cases in Hubei are comparatively less reliable. Particularly, there is a jump on February 12, seeing Figure 1 and Table 1 ,.....
Document: where T 2 is a transition time of R, and R o = R(t = 0), being a constant. R o is related to I o by R o = γI o /Ï 1 . But in principle, both I o and R o are just arbitrary constants because we choose time zero randomly. We use (3) and (4) to fit epidemic curves. For various reasons, reported numbers of cumulative confirmed cases in Hubei are comparatively less reliable. Particularly, there is a jump on February 12, seeing Figure 1 and Table 1 , due to the addition of clinically diagnosed cases (only applicable to Hubei province) to previously laboratory confirmed cases. On the other hand, numbers of cumulative confirmed cases, recoveries and deaths of other provinces on the Chinese mainland are quite reliable since January 20 when the National Health Commission started to daily report the epidemic situation. Therefore, we apply the model to the epidemic data excluding Hubei.
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