Author: Tang, Biao; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Li, Qian; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni; Wu, Jianhong
Title: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: thu861hj_8
Snippet: On January 23rd , 2020, Wuhan, the epicenter of the current coronavirus outbreak, announced the implementation of travel restriction as strategy for controlling the infection. Following this announcement, many other cities and provinces of China decided to enforce similar measures. In the meantime, many other control measures have been adopted, like convincing all the residents to stay at home and avoid contacts as much as possible. From the math.....
Document: On January 23rd , 2020, Wuhan, the epicenter of the current coronavirus outbreak, announced the implementation of travel restriction as strategy for controlling the infection. Following this announcement, many other cities and provinces of China decided to enforce similar measures. In the meantime, many other control measures have been adopted, like convincing all the residents to stay at home and avoid contacts as much as possible. From the mathematical point of view, this can significantly contribute to decreasing the contact rate c among the persons. On the other hand, also from January 23rd , 2020, gradually increasing numbers of 2019-nCoV testing kits were sent to Wuhan from other provinces, gradually shortening the time period of diagnosis (i.e. the value of d I increases greatly). Considering these control strategies, we adapted our previous model (Tang et al., 2020) as time-dependent dynamic system, by taking January 23rd , 2020 as the newly initial time:
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