A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann; Julian Heidecke; Hridya Vinod Varma; Noemi Castelletti; Jan H Meinke; Stefan Krieg; Thomas Lippert

Having said that, it is obvious from all the simulated scenarios that a combination of vastly increased testing, isolation of known infectives, and restraint in contacts with persons of high age or with relevant preconditions is the most promising approach if the severity of the epidemic is to be limited to as low a level as possible. Using antibody tests, as far as available, in addition to direct PCR tests for viral RNA will have the additional benefit of identifying recovered, and hence presumably immune individuals who can then resume their normal levels of activity without jeopardizing any efforts to contain the epidemic. That even the most optimistic scenarios results in more than ten thousand fatalities and very high numbers of cases is a result of the assumption that the detection ratio is still rather low, albeit increasing, and the presumed number of infectives at the current point in time is already rather large. Any significant increase in testing is therefore going to reveal a large number of infected individuals already present but still in the dark. However, the prospect of reducing the number of fatalities by possibly 90% or even more should be a good reason to strongly consider the proposed measures.