Pathogen–host–environment interplay and disease emergence

Engering, Anneke; Hogerwerf, Lenny; Slingenbergh, Jan

A key factor influencing both the likelihood and outcome of disease emergence is pathogen invasiveness, i.e., the ability of a pathogen to emerge. Such invasiveness is determined by the combination of pathogen traits, including opportunism and evolvability. 20, 24, 25 Notably, RNA viruses with an inherent high mutational rate, bacteria capable of acquiring genetic material and pathogens infecting multiple hosts are more likely to turn into an emerging disease agent. 2, 4, 8, 24, 26 On the other hand, emergence is influenced by the invasibility of the hostenvironment, in terms of the individual body, host population structure, host community composition and mosaic, and the associated landscape and its resilience towards pathogen invasion. 25, 27 The role of the environment extends also to the role of temperature and humidity in pathogen environmental survival and transmission, seasonality in abundance and distribution of arthropod vectors, and roles of geographic, physical or chemical barriers.