Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan
Title: Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: mipdahk4_38
Snippet: We use the common split of the UK population into following age groups: The probabilities of death for group G m , denoted by p m , are given from Table 1 in [3] and replicated many times by the BBC and other news agencies are: Unfortunately, these numbers do not match the other key number given in [3] : the UK average mortality rate which is estimated to be about 0.9%. As we consider the value of the UK average mortality rate as more important, .....
Document: We use the common split of the UK population into following age groups: The probabilities of death for group G m , denoted by p m , are given from Table 1 in [3] and replicated many times by the BBC and other news agencies are: Unfortunately, these numbers do not match the other key number given in [3] : the UK average mortality rate which is estimated to be about 0.9%. As we consider the value of the UK average mortality rate as more important, we have multiplied all probabilities above by 0.732 to get the average mortality rate to be 0.9%.
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