Author: Dawson, Patrick; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Parvez, Faruque; Morse, Stephen S.
Title: What Have We Learned About Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Emergence in Humans? A Systematic Literature Review Document date: 2019_3_1
ID: yb54i1ne_75
Snippet: Parameters for transmission dynamics are important for mathematical modeling of spread. Due to the heterogeneity in transmission, an important characteristic of infection dynamics, R 0 (the basic reproductive rate in a susceptible population), has been difficult to pinpoint. Estimates have ranged from 0.50 to 0.69 (Breban et al. 2013 , Poletto et al. 2014 to between 0.8 and 1.3 (Cauchemez et al. 2014 ). R 0 > 1 is required for an outbreak to be s.....
Document: Parameters for transmission dynamics are important for mathematical modeling of spread. Due to the heterogeneity in transmission, an important characteristic of infection dynamics, R 0 (the basic reproductive rate in a susceptible population), has been difficult to pinpoint. Estimates have ranged from 0.50 to 0.69 (Breban et al. 2013 , Poletto et al. 2014 to between 0.8 and 1.3 (Cauchemez et al. 2014 ). R 0 > 1 is required for an outbreak to be self-sustaining (Anderson and May 1991) . For specific locations, one model suggested an R 0 of 3.5-6.7 in Jeddah and 2.0-2.8 in Riyadh (Majumder et al. 2014 ), but these likely did not correct for effect of superspreading in health care settings (Kucharski and Althaus 2015) . One mathematical model suggested the risk of secondary transmission following an imported MERS-CoV case is 22.7% (95% CI: 19.2-25.1%), with the risks of generations 2, 3, and 4 estimated to be 10.5%, 6.1%, and 3.9%, respectively (Nishiura et al. 2015) .
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