Author: Fook Hou Lee
Title: A Heuristic Model for Spreading of COVID 19 in Singapore Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: 6l7igbmx_48
Snippet: As Fig. 5a shows, the initial exponential followed by inflexion and then stabilisation is now clearly reflected. Furthermore, as Fig. 5b shows, the peaking of the incremental number of detected cases is also reflected in all three cases but is more pronounced in Strategy 3 owing to the later and slower ramp-up. Finally, the effect of increasing the k-value is also reflected in a decrease in The daily infectivity r is similar, but not identical to.....
Document: As Fig. 5a shows, the initial exponential followed by inflexion and then stabilisation is now clearly reflected. Furthermore, as Fig. 5b shows, the peaking of the incremental number of detected cases is also reflected in all three cases but is more pronounced in Strategy 3 owing to the later and slower ramp-up. Finally, the effect of increasing the k-value is also reflected in a decrease in The daily infectivity r is similar, but not identical to the basic reproduction number R0 widely used in epidemiology (https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-methods/1aepidemiology/epidemic-theory). The basic reproduction number R0 is defined as "the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection in a population where everyone is susceptible". This ignores the effect of herd immunity. To account for herd immunity, an effective reproductive number R is also defined, such that
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