Author: Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Gimma, Amy; Bosse, Nikos I; Jarvis, Christopher I; Russell, Timothy W; Munday, James D; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Funk, Sebastian; Eggo, Rosalind M
Title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_28
ID: ueb7mjnv_6
Snippet: We initialised the branching process with five, 20, or 40 cases to represent a newly detected outbreak of varying size. Initial symptomatic cases were then isolated after symptom onset with a delay drawn from the onset-toisolation distribution (table). Isolation was assumed to be 100% effective at preventing further transmission; therefore, in the model, failure to control the outbreak resulted from the incomplete contact tracing and the delays i.....
Document: We initialised the branching process with five, 20, or 40 cases to represent a newly detected outbreak of varying size. Initial symptomatic cases were then isolated after symptom onset with a delay drawn from the onset-toisolation distribution (table). Isolation was assumed to be 100% effective at preventing further transmission; therefore, in the model, failure to control the outbreak resulted from the incomplete contact tracing and the delays in isolating cases rather than the inability of isolation to prevent further transmission. Either 100% or 90% of cases became symptomatic, and all symptomatic cases were eventually reported.
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