Complex dynamics induced by delayed adaptive behavior during epidemics

Ronan F. Arthur; James H. Jones; Matthew H. Bonds; Marcus W. Feldman

A delay in a behavioral response to an epidemic can take a variety of forms. For example, in the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, there were delays in the identification of the virus, delays in the acquisition of reliable information on suspected and confirmed cases, delays in the mobilization of international relief efforts by the World Health Organization and affected governments [25] , delays in the establishment of trust between local affected communities and health authorities [26] , delays in the launching of community information and communication campaigns, and delays in laying the physical infrastructure for the treatment and isolation of an increasing number of patients. Recognizing the effects of such delays as a part of the endogenous relationship between disease and behavior is important to improved understanding of the complexity of disease dynamics.