Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country

Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel

We have now conducted a sensitivity analysis of compliance with home isolation of children resulting from school closure as well as rigorous social distancing resulting from school closure coupled with workplace closure and community contact reduction. This analysis can be found in the Supplementary Data File. (Table A4 ). The table illustrates that while compliance in the school closure scenario has a profound effect on transmission in the Albany model, it has only a marginal effect in the Madang models. This is because about half of the children in Madang do not attend schools in the model and household sizes are larger. Thus the majority of transmission occurs in household and neighbourhood hubs in the Madang models and less in the wider community. Please see Table 1 in the main text for specific numbers. We have also added more text to the 'Sensitivity Analysis' part of the manuscript. This text can also be found in our response to Comment 6b of Reviewer 1.