Author: Milne, George J; Baskaran, Pravin; Halder, Nilimesh; Karl, Stephan; Kelso, Joel
Title: Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country Document date: 2013_3_26
ID: y01w04lc_326
Snippet: Using the contact, mobility and transmission features described above, stochastic simulations of influenza spread in Madang were conducted. All simulations were repeated 40 times with random numbers controlling the outcome of stochastic events (the locality of seeded infected individuals and the probability of transmission) and the results were averaged. Analysis of this simulation model has shown that the 40-run mean attack rate is highly unlike.....
Document: Using the contact, mobility and transmission features described above, stochastic simulations of influenza spread in Madang were conducted. All simulations were repeated 40 times with random numbers controlling the outcome of stochastic events (the locality of seeded infected individuals and the probability of transmission) and the results were averaged. Analysis of this simulation model has shown that the 40-run mean attack rate is highly unlikely (95% confidence) to differ by more than 1.2% from the mean attack rate of a much larger set of experiment repeats. [20] Where 95% confidence intervals are reported in the results, these were calculated from the mean and standard deviation of 40 randomly seeded simulation runs, using the normal approximation method.
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