Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

Note that in both cases, when x = 0.8 and x = 0.9, the second wave of the epidemic is not expected as by the time of lifting the lock-down, a large percentage of the population (about 25% in case x = 0.9 and almost 40% in case x = 0.8) is either infected or immune and the 'herd immunity' would follow shortly. In a certain sense, the decision of making a lock-down at around x = 0.9 seem to be a very sensible decision to make (considering economic costs of each day of a lock-down) as this saves many lives and guarantees smooth dynamics of the epidemic with no second wave.