Selected article for: "bayesian framework and exponential growth"
Author: Tang, Biao; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Li, Qian; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni; Wu, Jianhong
Title: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)
  • Document date: 2020_2_11
    • ID: thu861hj_29_1
    Snippet: tly decrease within 77 [95% CI 75e80] days from its beginning. Furthermore, authors found that every one-day reduction in the duration of the period from illness/symptom onset to isolation would reduce the peak population size by 72e84% and the cumulative infected cases and deaths both by 68e80%. The study by Majumder and Mandl (Majumder & Mandl, 2020) utilized the "Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment" (IDEA) model and led to an estimate o.....
    Document: tly decrease within 77 [95% CI 75e80] days from its beginning. Furthermore, authors found that every one-day reduction in the duration of the period from illness/symptom onset to isolation would reduce the peak population size by 72e84% and the cumulative infected cases and deaths both by 68e80%. The study by Majumder and Mandl (Majumder & Mandl, 2020) utilized the "Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment" (IDEA) model and led to an estimate of the reproduction number in the range of 2.0e3.1. Finally, Riou and Althaus (Riou & Althaus, 2020) , using a stochastic model simulating epidemics trajectories, computed a reproduction number of 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4e3.8). Using statistical approaches, namely exponential growth and maximum likelihood techniques, Liu and colleagues (Liu et al., 2020) estimated the value of the reproduction number ranging from 2.90 (95% CI 2.32e3.63) to 2.92 (95% CI 2.28e3.67). Zhang and Wang (Zhang & Wang, 2020) , employing a Bayesian framework to infer time-calibrated phylogeny from 33 available genomic sequences, found that the time of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) was December 17th , 2019 (95% highest posterior density interval from December 7th , 2019 to December 23rd , 2019) and that the value of the reproduction number oscillated between 1.1 and 1.6.

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