Complex dynamics induced by delayed adaptive behavior during epidemics

Ronan F. Arthur; James H. Jones; Matthew H. Bonds; Marcus W. Feldman

One of the responsibilities of infectious disease modelers is to predict and project forward what epidemics will do in the future in order to better assist in the proper and strategic allocation of preventative resources. An insight from this model, however, is that prediction becomes very difficult if we take into account endogenous behavior change because the system is qualitatively sensitive to small differences in values of key parameters. These parameters are very hard to measure precisely; they change depending on the disease system and context and their measurement is generally subject to large errors. To maximize the ability to predict and minimize loss of life or morbidity, outbreak response should not only seek to minimize the reproduction number, but also the length of time taken to gather and distribute information.