Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

Mizumoto, Kenji; Chowell, Gerardo

Distributions of median R t for entire study period for overall, for type and by each transmission type are shown in Fig. 3 . Median R t are 5.8 (95%CrI: 0.6e11.0), 6.1 (95%CrI: 0.5, 11.8), 0.9 (95%CrI: 0.3, 1.5) for overall and by type (passenger, crew). Examining inter-type and within-type transmission, R t estimates greatly vary across transmission types: 5.6 (95%CrI: 0.3, 10.9) for passenger to passenger, 0.6 (95%CrI: 0.1, 1.1) for passenger to crew, 0.5 (95%CrI: 0.2, 0.8) for crew to passenger, 0.5 (95%CrI: 0.3, 0.8) for crew to crew. Although vaccines are still in early development stages as of February 2020, based on our findings, the corresponding target vaccination coverage to contain the outbreak in this confined setting were estimated at 91% and 94% from the maximum value of the 50 percentile distribution and the 97.5 percentile distribution, respectively.