A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann; Julian Heidecke; Hridya Vinod Varma; Noemi Castelletti; Jan H Meinke; Stefan Krieg; Thomas Lippert

A close-to-total shutdown of any economic and social activities for three to four months (scenario SD-T) is expected to merely postpone any of the described scenarios. This is at least the case if we assume that an absolute isolation of Germany as a country will not be possible for a substantial amount of time afterwards, so that the epidemic is bound to inadvertently resurge from endemic reservoirs after the restrictions are being lifted. Even assuming the test activities remain high after rolling back the shutdown, there is no significant effect on either the number of fatalities or the peak number of cases when compared to the baseline scenario with increased testing alone (T1) (results not shown in figures). The positive effect of a temporary shutdown would be to gain time, which could be an advantage if health systems can be prepared to deal with the disease better, if a vaccine can be developed in time, or if the virus is expected to become less aggressive. Lacking any information, we did not include these aspects in the model so far.