Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan
Title: Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: mipdahk4_45
Snippet: The COVID-19 epidemic in the whole of the UK is subject to different heterogeneities discussed in detail in [1] . The model above assumes homogeneity and hence cannot be applied to the whole of the UK and we feel it would be irresponsible to estimate the total death toll for the UK using such a model. Instead, we shall assume that we apply this model to the population of inner London with population size rounded to 3 million. It may be tempting t.....
Document: The COVID-19 epidemic in the whole of the UK is subject to different heterogeneities discussed in detail in [1] . The model above assumes homogeneity and hence cannot be applied to the whole of the UK and we feel it would be irresponsible to estimate the total death toll for the UK using such a model. Instead, we shall assume that we apply this model to the population of inner London with population size rounded to 3 million. It may be tempting to multiply our expected death tolls by 22=66/3 but this would give very elevated forecasts. Indeed, epidemic in inner London can be considered as the worst-case scenario and, in view of [1] , we would recommend to down-estimate the UK overall death toll forecasts by a factor of 2 or even more.
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