Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

After lifting the lock-down, we assume that people from the group G are still isolated but the rest of population returns back to normal life. However, it is natural to assume that the reproduction number R 2 for t ≥ t 2 is smaller that the initial value of R 0 . To denote the degree of isolation of people from G for t ≥ t 2 , we assume that for t ≥ t 2 the virus is transmitted to people in such a way that, conditionally a virus is transmitted, the probability that it reaches a person from G is p = cα with 0 < c ≤ 1. Our main value for c is 1/4. This means that for t ≥ t 2 , under the condition that a virus is infecting a new person, the probabilities that this new person belongs to G is 1/5.