Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059451 doi: medRxiv preprint is clearly slightly higher for t 2 = April 13 (blue line) than for t 2 = April 22. Taking into account the fact that infected people from G would on average require more hospital beds than the rest of population, the expected number of hospital beds required for the whole population stays approximately the same during the whole epidemic which has to be almost over in July. Figure 9 , showing expected deaths numbers for both scenarios with t 2 = April 13 and t 2 = April 22, show similar patterns concluding that there is very little gain in keeping the lock-down, especially taking into account huge economic loss caused by every extra day of the lock-down [10]. Overall, the total expected death is higher but the difference can be considered as very small. Expected deaths tolls for t 2 = April 22 and t 2 = April 13 are 15(5.2+9.8)K and 15.3(5.6+9.7)K, respectively.