A Gaussian model for the time development of the Sars-Cov-2 corona pandemic disease. Predictions for Germany made on March 30, 2020

Reinhard Schlickeiser; Frank Schlickeiser

In order to handle all serious infections in German hospitals the condition (18) has to be fulfilled. It seems that German hospitals can only ensure the best treatment of all NSSPs at the maximum of first wave if either (1) the number of available breathing apparati can be increased by a factor of 3, corresponding to b = 210 per day. or (2) the quarantaining factor q can be reduced to q = 0.36 +0.03 −0.02 1/3. The first option is unrealistic on short time scales. To achieve the second option of the reducing the quarantaining factor q to about 0.3 by the currently taken social distancing and quarantaining activities seems to be realistically achievable in Germany. We therefore will adopt this optimistic value q = 0.3q 0.3 in our further predictions. However we note that with such a small quarantaining factor only 21000N 5 will be infected during the whole first wave of the virus, so that additionally waves are likely to occur in the future.