Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Antiepidemic Policies and Global Situation Assessment of COVID-19

Xu, Liyan; Zhang, Hongmou; Deng, Yuqiao; Wang, Keli; Li, Fu; Lu, Qing; Yin, Jie; Di, Qian; Liu, Tao; Yin, Hang; Zhang, Zijiao; Du, Qingyang; Yu, Hongbin; Liu, Aihan; Jiang, Hezhishi; Guo, Jing; Yuan, Xiumei; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Liu; Liu, Yu

With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and provide situation assessment and policy suggestions for each group.