Temporal data series of COVID-19 epidemics in the USA, Asia and Europe suggests a selective sweep of SARS-CoV-2 Spike D614G variant

Furuyama, Taima N.; Antoneli, Fernando; Carvalho, Isabel M. V. G.; Briones, Marcelo R. S.; Janini, Luiz M. R.

The COVID-19 pandemic started in Wuhan, China, and caused the worldwide spread of the RNA virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Because of its mutational rate, wide geographical distribution, and host response variance this coronavirus is currently evolving into an array of strains with increasing genetic diversity. Most variants apparently have neutral effects for disease spread and symptoms severity. However, in the viral Spike protein, which is responsible for host cell attachment and invasion, an emergent variant, containing the amino acid substitution D to G in position 614 (D614G), was suggested to increase viral infection capability. To test whether this variant has epidemiological impact, the temporal distributions of the SARS-CoV-2 samples bearing D or G at position 614 were compared in the USA, Asia and Europe. The epidemiological curves were compared at early and late epidemic stages. At early stages, where containment measures were still not fully implemented, the viral variants are supposed to be unconstrained and its growth curves might approximate the free viral dynamics. Our analysis shows that the D614G prevalence and the growth rates of COVID-19 epidemic curves are correlated in the USA, Asia and Europe. Our results suggest a selective sweep that can be explained, at least in part, by a propagation advantage of this variant, in other words, that the molecular level effects of D614G have sufficient impact on population transmission dynamics as to be detected by differences in rate coefficients of epidemic growth curves.