Author: Michael E. Hochberg
Title: Countries should aim to lower the reproduction number R close to 1.0 for the short-term mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: f36smzln_6
Snippet: We explore the short-term consequences of lowering â„›0 (referred to hereafter as 'mitigation') and of delaying measures on the impacts of outbreaks in terms of the number of individuals eventually infected by the virus and fatalities. We find that the positive implications of mitigation accrue as these measures are adopted early, with the most striking effects as â„›CÃ 1.0. As the delay exceeds approximately the half-way point to the peak of an .....
Document: We explore the short-term consequences of lowering ℛ0 (referred to hereafter as 'mitigation') and of delaying measures on the impacts of outbreaks in terms of the number of individuals eventually infected by the virus and fatalities. We find that the positive implications of mitigation accrue as these measures are adopted early, with the most striking effects as ℛCà 1.0. As the delay exceeds approximately the half-way point to the peak of an outbreak, the effects of lowering ℛC decrease. Finally, we show that lowering ℛCà 1.0 can substantially lower fatalities over fixed time scales, particularly for larger populations. We conclude that research is urgently needed on how measures impact ℛ0 and how these can be optimized so as to achieve ℛC≈1.0, whilst supporting individual freedoms, society and the economy.
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