Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak and control: effect of temperature, relative humidity, and lockdown implementation

Mozumder, Salatul Islam; Amin, Mohammad Shaiful Alam; Uddin, Mohammad Rakib; Talukder, Musabbir Jahan

Meteorological parameters are important factors that have an influence on infectious diseases. The present study aimed to explore the correlation between the spread of COVID-19, temperature, and relative humidity. The effect of human-imposed control parameters in the form of lockdown on the dissipation of COVID-19 was also analyzed. Data were collected on the three study variables – temperature, relative humidity, and lockdown period – from nine of the most infected cities worldwide as well as information on changes in the number of COVID-19 patients from the beginning to a specific point in the lockdown period. A generalized regression model was applied to explore the effect of temperature and relative humidity on the change in daily new cases of COVID-19. The regression analysis did not find any significant correlation between temperature, humidity, and change in number of COVID-19 cases. Analysis of the cities with wide-ranging temperature variations showed a negative correlation of COVID-19 transmission (p=0.079) with temperature but a relatively nonsignificant correlation with relative humidity (p=0.198). The number of total deaths was also higher in low-temperature countries compared with high-temperature countries. The specific growth rate in COVID-19 cases was decreased by more than 66% after implementation of a lockdown. This growth rate was exponentially decreased over time through the proper implementation of lockdown. Analysis of the real-case scenario and application of predictive models showed that for New York, Lombardy, and Madrid more than 120 days of strict lockdown was required for complete control of the transmission of COVID-19.