Insufficient social distancing may contribute to COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Ijuí city in Brazil

Heck, Thiago Gomes; Frantz, Rafael Z.; Frizzo, Matias Nunes; François, Carlos Henrique Ramires; Ludwig, Mirna Stela; Mesenburg, Marilia Arndt; Buratti, Giovano Pereira; Franz, Lígia Beatriz Bento; Berlezi, Evelise Moraes

The coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious and has given way to a global pandemic. A present COVID-19 has high transmission rates worldwide, including in small Brazilian cities such as Ijuí. Located in the northwest part of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and with a population of 83,475, Ijuí was selected as the site of a population-based survey involving 2,222 subjects, from April to June 2020. Subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and answered questions regarding social distance adherence (SDA), daily preventive routines (DPR), comorbidities, and sociodemographic characteristics. In parallel, the local government registered the official COVID-19 cases in Ijuí, as well as the mobile social distancing index (MSDI). In this study, we demonstrate that there was a decrease in the levels of SDA, DPR and MSDI before the beginning of COVID-19 community transmission in Ijuí. Furthermore, we provide predictions for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the city. We conclude that insufficient social distancing, as evidenced by different methods, may be related to the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in Ijuí. Our study predicts an approaching outbreak of COVID-19 in Ijuí through community spread, which could be avoided or attenuated with increased levels of social distancing among the population.