On the track of the D839Y mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike fusion peptide: emergence and geotemporal spread of a highly prevalent variant in Portugal

Borges, V.; Isidro, J.; Cortes-Martins, H.; Duarte, S.; Vieira, L.; Leite, R.; Gordo, I.; Caetano, C. P.; Nunes, B.; Sa, R.; Oliveira, A.; Guiomar, R.; Gomes, J. P.; genomics, Portuguese network for SARS-CoV-2

Mutations in the Spike motif predicted to correspond to the fusion peptide are considered of interest as this domain is a potential target for anti-viral drug development that plays a pivotal role in inserting SARS-CoV-2 into human cell membranes. We tracked the temporal and geographical spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant with the Spike D839Y mutation in the fusion peptide, which was detected early during the COVID-19 epidemic in Portugal. We show that this variant was most likely imported from Italy in mid-late February 2020, becoming prevalent in the Northern and Central regions of Portugal, where represented 22% and 59% of the sampled genomes, respectively, until the end of April 2020. Based on our high sequencing sampling during the early epidemics [15,5% (1275/8251) and 6,0% (1500/24987) of all confirmed cases until the end of March and April, respectively)], we estimate that, between March 14th and April 9th (covering the exponential phase of the epidemic), the relative frequency of Spike Y839 variant increased at a rate of 12.1% (6.1%-18.2%, CI 95%) at every three days, being potentially associated with one in each four (20.8-29.7%, CI 95%) COVID-19 cases in Portugal during the same period. This observation places the Spike Y839 variant in the origin of the largest SARS-CoV-2 transmission chain during the first month of the COVID-19 epidemic in Portugal. We hypothesize that population/epidemiological effects (founder effects) and enhanced selective advantage might have concomitantly contributed to the increasing frequency trajectory of the Spike Y839 variant. Screening of the D839Y mutation globally confirmed its detection in 12 additional countries, even though the huge differences in genome sampling between countries hampers any accurate estimate of D839Y global frequency. In summary, our data points out that SARS-CoV-2 Spike Y839 variants, namely the descendent variant of the globally spread G614 variant detected in Portugal, need continuous and close surveillance.